Ok party people first few posts of the week and I’m going to say I’m quite proud of these few. First off congratulations to you all that have observed social distancing, even though I believe it has made not one bit of difference in the grand scheme of things (loads of unnecessary deaths, one family of four observing social distancing makes no difference when hundreds of people aren’t and finally CHINA hiding it for roughly three months).
I’m still saying congratulations because you all have proven something to yourselves. You’ve proven that even though with all this crazy nonsense you were able to figure a routine and “find yourself” in this new version of the world. We have for the most part utilized technology to stay connected, I don’t care what anyone says a zoom or facetime call beats the landline convos of 20 years ago. Finally, hopefully (and I mean hopefully) covid-19 has given you some time to reflect, re-evaluate and re-frame for when it all begins again!
The whole “I have to work thing”, the whole “I have to meet these people for social upstanding reasons thing” the whole fucking works!
I’m saying this now to you because I know you will all forget! July is round the corner and after all the “I’ve survived co-vid-19 parties” and those weak convos where people say “life is too short we should interact and visit each other more” you guys are going to forget and fall into the same rut, glut and routines.
This government chose money over lives, I’ve been through this with you all before, so rather than repeat myself I wanted to walk you through some investigative journalism I happened to make myself do completely by accident.
- The R number is an approximation of the infection rate: Remember when you went uni and you had to do some research for your dissertation. Let’s have a go at making a hypothesis up:
“I think it will take roughly 60 days before the exponential rate of cases and deaths will START to decline”
Let’s do a method
“I will track the date and the reported number of cases and deaths from the government, and plot them against each other to see if the data collected is exponential or not”
Results :
These are my results for the number of cases
The top graph is date vs cases, the bottom graph is date vs death. TODAY,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, today is the first day that the R squared value for deaths is less than 0.9!
Now the R0 number that the government keeps banging on about is a real number of which I have done some extensive research on, but guess what it’s simply an approximation, it relies on certain assumptions that simply cannot be validated.
My data is simply the number of death reported BY THIS GOVERNMENT and their group of scientists behind it. It’s not exactly concrete because I can’t even say they been reporting it accurately but it is fair to say it is way more accurate than the R0.
The R squared value that you can see on my graph simply tells you how much of the data you’ve collected matches the type of trend you want to check for.
All I’ve done is simply said “hey this is the amount of deaths and cases the government has told me that have happened, how exponential is this shit!?”
Conclusions:
Considering that the highest number R-squared can be is 1, the fact that it is still 0.91 for cases and 0.87 for deaths means that both sets of data are highly correlated to exponential growth. If Boris was to do his dodgy speech this Sunday it would make some tiny bit of sense, but last Sunday??????????
We should surely be ONLY thinking about lifting restrictions when the R-squared value is less than 0.7, but then again that would be only if you were in the interest of saving lives and let’s be honest I said it since day, no one has been giving a fuck about saving lives,…….. No one that makes a difference that is.
So what if there is a second wave? Well I got a hypothesis for that too. It’s called
“Second wave or no second wave, by July the 4th of July we will be all up and running!” but y’all have to wait for part two which I will hopefully drop tonight!
See y’all tonight!