4 of July, how can you be so specific?

So let’s run with my hypothesis from my last post:

“Second wave or no second wave, by July the 4th of July we will be all up and running!”

So let me set the scene, I was just brainstorming if there were any quick wins I could see in the stock market. The first things that came to mind were things like cruise ships and airplanes but their business models are criminally tight when it comes to cash flow, too random and way too much work to figure out which may or may not come out best.

So then the next sector that came to mind was hospitality, I left out restaurants, too difficult to work out franchise rates and decipher things in their 10ks and their annual reports.

That left me with hotels……………. Hmmmmmmmmmmm. 

It’s weird when you think about hotels they epitomise what I like about a business model. It’s literally no different to hotels in monopoly!

You raise capital flying past “go” every time collecting £200 quid at a time and once you have enough capital you buy a place, build a hotel on it and that’s it! 

All that is left is how many times people land on (visit) your property and based on the number of visits you can muster is kind of what your revenue is going to be.

Living near Heathrow, you never really pay attention to how many fucking new hotels have been opening on the regular, not one of them has ever closed, even the proper budget budget ones!

So a quick google search of a variety of these companies brought up a number of names such as Raddison, Sheraton, Travelodge I’m sure you have seen or heard of these before. So most of these are American owned but Premier Inn is actually UK owned. This makes a difference to me because american annual accounting reports are such a fucking nightmare to read.

The best thing I like to do before I start delving into stuff like accounts etc, is to pretend i’m a customer. 

How does the potential company I’m going to invest in, work in the real world?

I go to my local Premier Inn website just to see what the banter is and obviously they ain’t taking bookings because of Covid. Makes perfect sense but then I see another message saying,

“We’re sorry, this hotel is currently closed. We will be reopening our doors soon and you are still able to book now for stays from 4th July 2020 onwards.”

4th of July? Fucking quite specific innit? I checked some of the websites for the other hotels and none of them say anything as specific?

I tried to validate this with many reasons but none of them seemed to make sense. 

So pitbull Abhi mode got activated and these are my thoughts and findings:

Such a specific date from a U.K owned company screams out “inside information” from the government. Inside information is nothing new fucking happens all the time, but with regards to a second wave happening the message is simply too confident, too specific for me to not at least try and explain it to myself.

So where to start, who owns Premier Inn? So this company called Whitbread owns them (they used to own Costa too!)

Now using only my knowledge from movies, “follow the money”. 

Who’s in charge of the money? The CFO, so who is the CFO?

This geeza:

“Nicholas Cadbury

Group Finance Director

Date of appointment to the board

November 2012

Experience

Nicholas joined Whitbread in November 2012 as Group Finance Director. He previously worked at Dixons Retail PLC, in a variety of management roles, including Chief Financial Officer from 2008 to 2011. Nicholas also held the position of Chief Financial Officer of Premier Farnell PLC, which he joined in 2011. Nicholas originally qualified as an accountant with Price Waterhouse.”

Ok we have a suspect , but if we brought this geeza in for questioning he’s obviously going to either lie, have an alibi or simply say prove it. 

“Abhi prove that I’m privy to some information that says if there is a second wave, it won’t matter because the government is going to open everything no matter what!”  Prove it I hear you saying.

Kool bruh, let’s just follow the money. 

The conservative have only been in power for as long as they have for one reason and one reason only, they sing to the same chorus of the elite. (Blair and Brown played a blinder because they made the left central but this can be another story for another day)

Anyway if you sing along with the elite what do you get, DONATIONS!

42 MILLION in donations to politicians by individuals alone in Q4 of last year, the majority of which all went to the Conservatives!

I’m sure it’s fair to say having worked in a variety of roles Cadbury will have made very strong ties and connections with the executive team at Dixons.

I started vetoing all these donors and this individual pops up

The C.E.O at Dixons is a man by the name of Alex Baldock. Guess what he’s donated money to the Conservative Government.

That’s my link.

One phone call “ Oi Alex you got any idea when this whole co-vid 19 bollocks is going to end?”

“Yea Nicholas, they told me 4th of July geezer”

“Sorted, I’ll let my guys know, was a tad scared about this second wave seriously affecting Whitbread we got enough cash flow until July.”

“Yea mate even if there is a second wave,, they just going to wave it , get it ahahahaha”

“Hahahahha you’re a right old joker Alex, farewell to you”

“Farewell”

Farewell to you Whitbread I won’t be investing in you anyway.

Laters